北美生猪市场继续违背常理草木槿

北美生猪市场继续违背常理

Hog Market continues to Defy Gravity

北美生猪市场继续违背常理

We have to say the level of current cash hog prices baffles us.

我们必须说目前的生猪现货价格水平让我们感到困惑。

Last week U.S. Hog Marketings-2,030,000-53–54% lean hogs. $129.31/lb.; average weight 217.15lbs.

上周，美国的生猪出栏数为2,030,000头。53–54%瘦肉猪价格为129.31美分/磅。平均体重为217.15磅。

Last year same week U.S. Hog Marketings-2,097,000-53–54% lean hogs.$77.23/lb.; average weight 209.7 lbs.

去年同一周的美国生猪出栏数为2,097,000头。53–54%瘦肉猪价格为77.23美分/磅。平均体重为209.7磅。

Why are we baffled year over year by hog marketings last week were down 3.2% while weights were up 3.5%, essentially we will end up with the same amount of pork produced year over year.

我们感到困惑的原因是上周的生猪出栏数同比下降了3.2%，而体重上升了3.5%。最终我们的猪肉产量同比将保持在相同水平。

Now the baffling part with essentially the same amount of pork produced year over year last week.The lean hog price （53–54%） is 52?/lb. higher this year or about $110 per head higher.A price difference that is gravity defying.Demand and price has exploded whether it's from emotional euphoric expectation of future collapsed supply and/or real pork demand from consumers domestically and globally.Whatever the reason the price is real hogs are trading at the $129, the $129 is not CME lean hog futures price but real right now.Take the cash.Pay down the bills.It's Christmas in April, and there is a Santa Claus, he is delivering presents to hog producers right now. 2014 The Year of the Pig Farmer.

困惑的原因就是猪肉产量同比相同，而瘦肉猪价格（53–54%）却比去年高出52美分/磅，每头猪大约高了110美元。这个价格差异是违背常理的。不管是从对将来供应量不足的情感上的乐观期待，还是国内外消费者的真实猪肉需求来看，需求和价格都已经爆发。不管是什么原因，真实的生猪交易价格在129美元。现在129美元已经不是芝加哥商品交易所的瘦肉猪期货价格，而是现在的真实价格。拿钱。消费。这是四月的圣诞节，有一个圣诞老人正在给养猪人发放礼物。2014年是养猪人的年份。

Quality Meat Packers （QMP） and Toronto Abattoir （TA） seek Creditor Protection

Quality肉联厂（QMP）和多伦多屠宰场（TA）寻求债权人保护

Quality Meat Packers and Toronto Abattoir an 83 year old company based in Toronto, Ontario requested court creditor protection last week. Quality has a potential of 30,000 hogs per week and also processing capacity.With 750 employees Jim Gracie Vice President of Marketing, Business and Corporate development at Quality said the 30 days granted for creditor protection will give the company time to look at restructuring alternatives.He “didn't know” if that would include layoffs.

Quality肉联厂（QMP）和总部设在安大略省多伦多并有83年历史的多伦多屠宰场（TA）上周向法院申请债权人保护。Quality每周可以处理30,000头生猪，并且有加工能力。公司拥有750名员工，Quality公司的营销及企业发展副总裁说，授予债权人保护的30天可以给公司足够的时间来考虑重组方案。他“不知道”是否将进行裁员。

It is our understanding at writing some producers have not been paid for hogs they had delivered.

在撰写本文时，我们认为有一些生猪者交付了生猪却没有收到他们的货款。

The Quality issue creates a dilemma for Ontario producers.The industry had surplus packer capacity with Quality, -Fearmans and Conestoga especially with large number of market hogs going to Quebec.Now with Quality's financial issues a surplus packer capacity could be altered.We all know more buyers lead to better prices, potentially fewer buyers is never price enhancing.

Quality的事件使安大略的生产者陷入困境。整个行业的加工能力过剩，有Quality、-Fearmans和Conestoga。特别是有大量生猪进入魁北克。现在，随着Quality的财务问题，加工过剩的产能可能会改变。我们都知道买家数量增加会带来更高的价格，潜在客户减少绝不会提高价格。

It's interesting that in times of profitability for producers, a packer-Quality asks for creditor protection while genetic company Choice Genetics wallows in Chapter 11 bankruptcy with $21.8 million of debt and assets of $486,000.In both cases producers have not been paid for purchased pigs.

有意思的是，现在正在生产者赚钱的时候，但Quality肉联厂却在寻求债权人保护。而种猪公司Choice因为2180万美元的债权而只有486,000美元的资产，正在申请第11章破产。在这两个案子里，生产者都没有拿到卖猪的钱。

Summary

总结

We believe hog market is at cash levels that are defying gravity. We believe unless hog marketings drop significantly prices will drop to $110 level lean. We need to get to 5% lower year over year in weekly hog marketings in our opinion to sustain current cash hog prices.

我们相信，生猪的现货市场正在违背常理。我们相信除非生猪出栏量明显下滑，瘦肉猪价格会跌到110美元的水平。在我们看来，每周的生猪出栏量需要下降5%才能维持当前的现货猪价格。

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